Astronomers calculated the orbits of 40,000 small-mass M-type dwarfs and found that 18 of them will make them orbit within a dangerous distance very close to the solar system in the next billion years. Although researchers say that the likelihood of this happening may be very small, once it happens, the consequences will be very serious.
"The probability of such an M-type dwarf star hitting the sun directly is almost zero," said John Bochanski, the first author of this study from Pennsylvania State University. He submitted this result to the 217th American Astronomical Society meeting held in Seattle, USA last month. He said: "But even close to the solar system, it will cause a dangerous comet storm."
Track 40,000 stars
Bokansky and his colleagues found 40,000 M-type dwarfs, which are very common types of red dwarfs. In fact, more than 70% of all stars in the universe are M-type dwarfs.
Their team obtained data on the radial velocities, distances and their own of these dwarfs. Based on these data, the researchers calculated the orbits of these stars in the coming billions of years. Bokanski said that at first they carried out this work as part of another larger research project, which was to study the rotation of the Milky Way's silver disk by examining the operating parameters of these dwarfs.
But the research team soon realized that this research has another important value, that is, whether there will be some members of the 40,000 dwarf stars that will move near the solar system and cause impacts, such as triggering comet storms.
Bokanski told reporters: "We have data for all 40,000 stars, which is like having 40,000 bullets. Let's see if there will be one hitting the solar system?"
The results of the calculations show that 18 of these stars have an orbit called the "vengeance goddess orbit". "Nemesis" (Nemesis) is the name of some dwarf stars orbiting the sun that some scientists believe exists in the deep universe. These 18 stars will approach the solar system periodically, and then gradually away.
Some scientists hope to use this periodic star approach disturbance event to explain the recurring biological extinction events in the history of the earth. According to research, there should be a huge belt of small celestial bodies called the Oort cloud in the outer periphery of the solar system. Astronomers believe that there are countless inactive comets. The presence of such disturbances may cause some comets to enter the inner solar system and eventually cause devastating impact events on the earth.
The public need not worry
But the public need not worry, because the uncertainty of the team's calculation is relatively large, especially for the calculation of the orbit after billions of years. The chances of the sun colliding with another star recently are slim.
Bokansky said that in the nearly 5 billion years of the earth's history, such devastating impact events are rare. According to his estimates, one of these 18 stars may actually be close to the solar system to a detectable level in the next billions of years, and this is still a relatively high estimate. "The probability of such an event is very low, but we have locked in the potential target objects most likely to cause such an impact."
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